10. Election Results: The U.S election concluded almost two weeks ago and there is no discussion this time around of mischievous results, which we can all be thankful. However, there is still talk about results from the past, but perhaps these folks should be thankful for the prospect of a serendipitous outcome this time and get to work.
9. Conspirators: The Onion has tried to buy InfoWars via an auction which is now under review by a court to judge if the procedure was undertaken fairly. Alex Jones's InfoWars and its sometimes other worldly offering of bizarre and misguided notions is in bankruptcy. The Onion wants to turn the tables on InfoWars and dedicate the 'purchase' of the site to ridiculing media and conspiracy folks who produce mindless gobbledygook.
8. From Beyond: The UAP, unidentified aerial phenomena, hearing before Congress last week led to a variety of questions and answers which rehashed known 'unknowns' while discussing orders of magnitudes of speed and g-forces that humans and machines can endure. The UAP (UFO) hearing didn't disclose much in the way of developments regarding alien crafts visiting Earth, except to make it obvious to some that if 'they' are out there, we had better hope they are friendly. And if it is earthly corporations or nations testing and displaying new technologies, there seems to be little information publicly available about who may be playing in the skies and waters. Optical illusions?
7. Polymarket Raid: Many folks started pointing fingers when the CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, had his home raided on the 13th of November, claiming the FBI was politicizing Polymarket's prediction that Donald Trump would win the U.S President race. But after further review, few have pointed out that Kalshi Inc., which also operates in the U.S and allows sentiment betting was not raided. The difference perhaps being that Kalshi is regulated via contract markets with the CFTC, and Polymarket is not and appears to be potentially operating in non-accordance to U.S laws.
6. Bitcoin & Coffee: BTC/USD continues to tread within the highest of tides and is slightly below 92,000 as of this writing. Coffee Arabica and Robusta are boiling within apex price ranges. Cocoa also remains rather impressively expensive. Which one of these speculative assets has no intrinsic value?
5. Buyer Remorse: At some juncture votes may start to feel a bit of angst per their recent voting decisions. We suggest to Polymarket and Kalshi to allow wagers on when this might be displayed in mass. However, in a very real way the U.S election in two years will be the key instrument to gauge the reaction to what is about to come from the new White House administration. Who will control the House of Representatives in two years time?
4. Forex: Foreign exchange should likely be placed in a number two or one AMT ranking, except to say we do not think retail traders should be enticed by being told no. Volatility that has pervaded the FX markets is not finished quite yet. While USD centric strength continues to cause upheavals against major currencies, and technical support and resistance levels are testing mid and long-term considerations, there still may be a week or so left in swirling whipsaw storms. Risk management has hopefully helped retail traders survive to wager again, but it shouldn't be today.
3. Fed Donations: Federal law mandates employees of the U.S government, https://www.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/2023-08/political_activities-dos_and_donts-2022.pdf, must disclose their political donations. Recent studies indicate that approximately 90% of Federal Reserve employee donations to political candidates go to Democrats, https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-employees-overwhelmingly-donate-democratic-175055289.html. This highlights the possibility that many current Fed employees have different perspectives regarding economics compared to those about to take positions of power in Washington D.C.
2. See No Data: U.S economic statistics have been rather tame recently, but financial institutions clearly are not paying much attention to near-term considerations about the potential influence of the Federal Reserve and interest rates. Instead behavioral sentiment appears anxiety laden. Retail traders and large speculators may be getting crushed together in a cyclone of certain assets, particularly if they are trying to fight short-term trends while infatuated with mid-term outlooks. The Fed may cut interest rates again in December.
1. The Clash: The highs in U.S Treasury yields and record territory of U.S stocks being traversed together indicates we will see a rather violent collision when one of these investment pursuits likely capitulates to market dynamics, allowing the other to take precedent. Some long-term investors may be nervous about President-elect Trump taking power in the third week of January, but it would be unwise to bet against him in the next six months. Meaning stocks may ultimately win this battle of attrition against bonds and prove they are more appealing.
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