The Forex market the past two months has created a profoundly stronger USD against many major currencies. The combination of late September intrigue regarding U.S Federal Reserve outlook, then nervousness about the approaching U.S election, followed by the subsequent results have been a dumpster fire for many speculators looking for a sustained return to USD centric weakness. Hopefully risk taking tactics have included a solid dose of caution.
This week's Non-Farm Employment Change numbers scheduled for Friday may give financial institutions a moment to focus on economic data instead of President-elect Donald Trump's loud pronouncements, but the effect may prove to only be momentary. It isn't data that is driving Forex for the moment it is nervousness and fear of the unknown.
While many financial institutions and speculators trade only the major currency pairs, taking a look at the less obvious and more infrequently transacted major currencies may provide retail traders additional perspectives regarding the fragile nature of Forex. Many nations and large institutions are demonstrating concerns about possible sea changes to U.S foreign economic policy. Yes, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY have all seen volatility via USD strength the past two months, but price velocity in the USD/BRL, USD/RUB, and USD/INR may be equally intriguing. And prove that mid-term forecasts (or lack of them) are causing bedlam for all.
While it is more than probable calmer heads will start to be seen in Forex and weakness eventually will return to the USD, trying to pick the exact moment this is going to happen remains a guessing game. Financial institutions via evidence in current Forex pricing remains rather cautious regarding their cash forward commercial enterprise. President-elect Donald Trump has certainly been dealt with before and his negotiation style is that of a businessman, it is not a coincidence that some global leaders who do not exactly see eye to eye with Trump are giving him respect because they understand he will act upon threats if not dealt with fairly.
Trump's recent brief rhetoric regarding BRICS and the organization's public consideration of creating a new currency to compete with the USD did not go unnoticed this weekend. Critics may want to proclaim Trump's threats as belligerent, but BRICS is free to create a new currency still if they wish. While Trump cannot stop the birth of a BRICS currency, he can certainly try to initiate actions (via sanctions) against nations that attempt to create a new unified currency which tries to curtail the dominance of the USD. It would certainly help Trump's bargaining position and the USD also, if better fiscal policy is practiced by the U.S Treasury and government.
It needs to be pointed out that Trump's warning to BRICS may not be needed. Even though the organization may be able to create a currency based on a commodities backbone, the lack of trust many financial institutions and nations would feel towards a non-transparent fiat currency powered by the fiscal monetary policies from the likes of Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa remains a difficult sell. Until many changes happen domestically within these nations via governance, creation of a BRICS currency remains wishful thinking.
Getting back to the big picture and the volatility recently seen in Forex. While the major currencies teamed against the USD have certainly faced hectic conditions, the fluctuations have not been unexpected. Day traders need to understand the month of December is likely going to remain choppy and see a test of technical support and resistance levels that are wide and full of fast reversals.
The question for the EUR, GBP, and JPY is if most of the negative inputs into these currencies has been factored into value. The suspicion may be yes, and that strength may rightfully appear in these big three sooner rather than later. However, the approaching holiday season and potential bluster from President-elect Trump will not make this a comfortable or easily wagered avenue.
Short-term retail traders looking to take advantage of the bloodbath created in Forex the past two months who seek opportunities should focus on perceived targets which aren't overly ambitious. The coming U.S jobs data this Friday may allow the U.S Federal Reserve room to cut the Federal Funds rate on the 18th of December by another quarter of a point. As a point of attention, the European Central Bank will announce their Main Refinancing Rate on the 12th of December. The ECB'S actions may be a solid clue regarding the Fed's approach to upcoming policy.
However, even if an interest rate cut were to take place via the Federal Reserve, it is likely the cut has already been factored into Forex. Which also highlights the high degree of nervousness that exists because of fears which permeate due to Donald Trump's tough negotiation stances which have been made public. Meaning those who are looking for USD centric weakness to emerge still need to rely on a shift within behavioral sentiment to occur that is not generated because of the Federal Reserve. Nations need to show a willingness to amend existing trading agreements with the U.S, allowing for changes to internal policies regarding exuberant price duties they place on U.S goods in their own countries.
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